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Wi

I see lots of optimistic guesses in regards to Eddy's annual contest below!

Let's take a look at a few numbers. If we take progression since 2005 the average gain per year is 58# / year. Since 2006 it's 63#, since 2009 it's only 31#. Therefore the current record is either very soft (relatively speaking) or we are slowly making our way to the top of the bell curve).

My thinking is if we can get back to "about average" it puts us at about 1910 this year. Linear progression at this point is mind boggling as not only will we blow past 2000, but also 2500 in short time!

If for some reason someone pops something over 1950 this year it would be staggering IMO. To actually exceed linerar progression this far up the bell curve seems quite unlikely. That said the quantity of growers as well as the number of quality growers now compared to 10 years ago has to be near 5 fold. Growers pushing growers helps. There will be a greater concentration of growers in the "favorable climate" zones of each individual season (see Stevens / Hopkins 2010 or Pugh, Urena, Bordsen 2011). So can more and better growers actually increase the rate of progression?

So what will we see? Average and about 1910, below average, or above 1910?

I'm as excited as anyone to find out!

9/25/2012 9:27:35 AM

Wi

To piggyback on above here's my thinking on who will grow the next WR :)

I feel there's a 25% chance the new WR holder will be relatively unknown. They may have grown some nice stuff, but never anything real nice. Then I think there's a 75% chance the new WR holder will be someone that's made some noise the past 3 years. Say anyone that's weighed a pumpkin over 1500. We'll see!

9/25/2012 10:05:08 AM

Dorval,Quebec

I put my birth year down,lol,Chris but I'm heard about a couple of big ones for this weekend,known heavy hitters.

9/25/2012 10:43:40 AM

Sharon, MA

Excellent analysis Chris. Last year's 8 lb WR increase to 1818.5 was only a small bump up. Lets hope for 1910. We have come to far to falter now.

9/25/2012 11:40:27 AM

Colorado

Good stuff chris.The current wr was 434 inches. We will have to wait to see if one of the giants out there weighs near the chart or will it be a smaller fruit that goes heavy.

9/25/2012 1:06:38 PM

Little-TON - Colorado

Chris, I already calculated inZ my guess to average 12% light..so Im shouldZ be right on...plus or minus a pound or two..lol

9/25/2012 2:47:11 PM

Minnesota

I based mine on it only went up 8lbs the year before, to 2,000 is quite a jump.

9/25/2012 3:53:25 PM

Minnesota([email protected])

Are there any growers out there hoping the WR isn't broken this year? Sometimes I feel/hope this way, because the higher the WR is, the more measley my pumpkins seem to be.

9/25/2012 9:08:21 PM

Northern California Foothills

Andy W had a pumpkin at the end of August that weighed over 1600. If a pumpkin with that kind of growth rate can make it the long haul, 2000 is possible.

9/25/2012 9:15:52 PM

Western NY

I get the feeling this is going to be another season like 2007

9/25/2012 9:16:46 PM

Wi

If that's the case Andy I just can't believe it. 2500 will be here and gone before we know it. How the heck will we move these things?

9/25/2012 9:57:16 PM

Western NY

That's a problem i'd like to have to deal with!

9/25/2012 10:01:11 PM

Rhode Island

i think anything is possible. hey if your gonna dream? dream big.

no one wants to tape big and weigh under chart. thats why most wont talk until the darn thing is weighed.

i have the utmost respect for growers larry and gerry checkon. they had a world record and still was left feeling empty a bit because the darn thing weighed way unter tape.

ya just dont know until someone weighs it.

pap

9/26/2012 9:03:00 AM

Bristol,RI,USA.

This weekend and next will tell the tale of the scale! GO GETEM RI!!!!!
thats my vote

9/26/2012 10:30:59 AM

Cornelius, Oregon

All I know is please keep the record from getting too high before I find another patch....

9/26/2012 1:38:36 PM

Cornelius, Oregon

LOL....I'll be back!!!!

9/26/2012 1:39:06 PM