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Western NY

Never one to walk away from a good discussion without first over-analyzing the data, I decided to crunch some numbers as a followup to the post titled THE QUEST on the AG Genetics and Breeding message board. What follows is a quick discussion based on a MS excel file I whipped up that can be found here:

http://greatpumpkincommonwealth.com/PDF/records.xls

I focused on the modern era (since 1990) and looked at the heaviest pumpkin grown each year. I also ran the numbers for the top 5 pumpkins each year (average weight of them). Of course, you can also include split pumpkins, so I did that also for both sets.

Over the entire 20 year span, the trendlines are very predictable (R-squared = 0.97 for both top pumpkin and top 5 average when DMGs are included, and not far off when they are omitted), with an average increase of about 49 pounds per year for the trend. That is not to say next year should see a 1775 pound pumpkin, but rather this year should have seen a 1666-1683; that is how amazing 2009 and 2007 were for pumpkin history.

I was curious about the question of whether or not things are slowing down. From 1990 to 1999, the rate of increase was 34 to 44# per year, depending on how it was calculated. From 2000 - 2009, it jumps to the mid 50's.

Broken down further during the most recent decade, the rate of increase was largest for all periods from 2000-04, going 70-80 pounds per year. This in turn, drops the last 5 years to averages of 54-65 per year, with the caveat that the last 5 years result in a much lower correlation because of the excesses of 2007 & 09, and a poor 2008.

So - are we slowing down? Maybe a little, and I would base that on the average of the top 5 pumpkins each year (DMGs included), but it isn't much of a slowdown. However, *if* they are slowing down, they are not yet slowing down fast enough to avoid hitting that magical 2000 mark in the next 6-9 years.

10/25/2009 11:33:52 PM

[email protected]

Great stuff Andy. I'm almost afraid to comment. LOL

Much of what Andy speaks of is the genetic improvement to C. Maxima. Smart growers making sound decisions with more & better information (internet) is the most significant & obvious cause. Howard Dill's predecessors could hardly imagine the advances we have made these past 20 years.

I'm no genetic expert so I won't elaborate other than to say that the genetic advances of the past 15-20 years wouldn't have been possible prior to the "NEW GROWER" mentality ie the computer generation is in charge now.

Fertility has changed dramatically with a significant reduction in chemical NPK use. Soil biology has moved forward (fungal & bacterial soil inoculants) which permitted (necessitated) the reduction in synthetic NPK.

Pest control has improved markedly with better efficacy delivered at much lower rates. This permits for plants that stay 'YOUTHFUL" longer into the year. The insect side of this is going to improve further (Acelepryn & dinotefuron for instance).

Fungicide advances might hit the brick wall 10 years ago as strobilurin resistance is already rampant. We don't even have consumer strobis yet (Jeez!) & some regions have strobi resistant Powdery Mildew.

The feds keep blocking the development of new contact fungicides while fast tracking the old ones away. As registrations expire there MIGHT not always be a modern replacement.

more later

10/26/2009 1:36:30 AM

Midway, UT

Great posts by both of you! Thank you. Answers some questions I've been thinking about on both sides.

10/26/2009 1:54:55 AM

bliss,n.y.- heart of Wyoming County

Great job guys!

10/27/2009 7:31:56 AM

[email protected]

That's it?

Andy's data suggests that one ton is still 6-9 years away without challenge or additional dialog?

10/27/2009 9:24:06 AM

Minnesota([email protected])

I'm not knowledgeble enough in statistics to challenge it LOL.

10/27/2009 12:55:12 PM

Marion,IN

Andy, Great post...hope you are wrong though!! Here is what I think needs to be done to get to the magical 2000lbs by 2012. First for the 2010 growing season, all growers who grew a pumpkin that was 15% heavy or greater this year (09) get a seed from the current world record pumpkin and cross the two seeds both ways. After the 2010 season is over, collect the two biggest pumpkins that also went heaviest over estimated weight. Repeat process for 2011. My guess by 2012, the 2000 pound mark will be broke!
This is my theory, it just needs to be proven. Any takers?

Mark G.

10/27/2009 3:03:33 PM

[email protected]

The impact that AGGC & BigPumpkins has had cannot accurately be reflected but they are important considerations.

10/30/2009 7:52:15 PM

Western NY

yep, i'm not saying *why* the weight gains are what they are (I have my own theories), it's just some pure number crunching on my end. A few things surprised me, a few things did not. Overall, it reinforced my belief that we will see 2000 in the somewhat near future.

Remember, we could technically go the next 2 years without a new WR and the weights would not (statistically) be leveling off. Gotta look at the big picture.

10/30/2009 8:51:09 PM