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Willamette Valley, Oregon

I was curious what the probability of growing a big pumpkin was overall. (I did a site search and didn't find it, so sorry if I duplicated a post already made.) I used the list from last year's offical weights: (http://www.bigpumpkins.com/WeighoffResultsGPC.aspx?c=P&y=2008) to figure my chances (best case scenario). A total of 1408 official pumpkins were on the list.

The actual probablities for any given plant are probably much lower, because many of us grow multiple plants and duds don't make the list at all. Although there may be big pumpkins that don't get weighed too (in my dreams!). It is what it is.

the "%ile" is percentile or the percentage of all the pumpkins on the list that are lighter than the given weight. So 99% of pumpkins in weigh-offs were less than 1403.6 lbs, or another way of thinking about it is 1% were greater than 1403.6 last year. Only 1 in 1000 was greater than 1525.4. There was a 50/50 chance of a 600 pounder.

%ile    Weight(lbs)
99.9%    1525.4
99%    1403.6
98%    1324.8
97%    1280.7
96%    1250.0
95%    1224.0
94%    1195.3
93%    1173.5
92%    1155.3
91%    1141.1
90%    1122.7
89%    1111.3
88%    1095.6
87%    1081.5
86%    1065.0
85%    1049.5
80%    987.4
75%    909.0
70%    837.9
65%    771.8
60%    715.1
55%    664.0
50%    599.7
45%    546.2
40%    497.4
35%    442.0
30%    394.6
25%    340.4
20%    289.2
15%    236.1
10%    174.1
0%    2.5

6/12/2009 1:52:58 AM

San Jose [email protected]

This is a very hypothetical question. the odds of the heavy hitters to grow a big pumpkin is almost 100%

for the rest of us it depends on a lot of factors, just a few below.

If you grow one plant the odds are not that great, as I have read lots of the heavy hitters (only) have a 50% survival rate of the biggies

how is your soil.

do you have a good pest management plan.

will you be affected by any of the following...

hail
wind
flood
too much ferts
accidentally cut the vine
vine borers
gophers
squirrels
deer
patch elephants
24d
round up
blown over shade tarp
burnt tip
too hot during pollination
no males during pollination
flat vine
double vine
PM
DM
mosaic virus
unknow reason for spontaneous abort
pumpkin ripping itself from vine, for lack of slack

I am sure i missed a thousand goofs people make every year.

but if you can avoid all of that, you have good soil, good weather and good seeds, your odds are pretty good.


LOL

6/12/2009 9:19:30 PM

Willamette Valley, Oregon

It's not hypothetical, but it IS a very limited data set, which only includes successful pumpkins that were officially weighed. The actual probablities are much worse than this for any given plant, but it sets the upper bounds; it's not any better than this! (kind of depressing! lol) A lot can go wrong before a pumpkin even gets to the scales, as garysand points out.

It's true that a lot of really heavy pumpkins are not ocurring just by pure chance. A lot of skill is involved. (Not the least of which may be knowing to start with a lot of plants! lol)

6/13/2009 12:42:00 PM