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Denver, CO

Ok, so after looking over the data I collected, I realized that I could in fact take my Date and Distance data one step farther. I could in fact answer the question I thought I could not answer in my earlier post.

Which is factor is the most important? Distance of pollination on main vine or Date of pollination?

So thanks to Arvada Boy’s caffeine plus Cojoe’s, Okiegal’s, Conibears and others prodding for an answer here is a possible answer

To answer this, we need to look at the rate of successfully growing a 1200lb or greater pumpkin when done outside of the already calculated target zones. (see previous post for how these target zones were calculated.) The zones are 12 to 17 feet in distance with from June 29th to July 3rd for dates. The factor with the greatest percent of success when calculated in this manner, will indicate that the OTHER factors are more important as they will have a lower success rate when outside the optimal range.

FOR DISTANCE:

24 of the total 232 Pumpkins were successfully grown to 1200 pounds or greater when set at a distance LESS then the 12 to 17 foot target zone. That an overall success rate of about 10.3%. Of these 24 pumpkins, 7 are 4-lobers and 17 are 5-lobers. There are 2, 6-lobers that fall into this category as well.

25 of the total 232 Pumpkins were successfully grown to 1200 pounds or greater when set at a distance MORE then the 12 to 17 foot target zone. That an overall success rate of about 10.8%. Of these 25 pumpkins, 12 are 4-lobers and 13 are 5-lobers. There are no 6-lobers that fall into this category.

DATES:
37 of the total 232 pumpkins were successfully grown to 1200 pounds or greater when set on a date BEFORE the already calculated optimal date range of June 29th to July 3rd. That’s an overall success rate of about 16%. Of these 37 pumpkins, 24 are 4-lobers and 13 are 5-lobers. There are no 6-lobers that fall into this category.

6/10/2009 11:30:57 PM

Denver, CO

60 of the total 232 pumpkins were successfully grown to 1200 pounds or greater when set on a date AFTER the already calculated optimal date range of June 29th to July 3rd. That’s an overall success rate of about 26%. Of these 37 pumpkins, 35 are 4-lobers and 25 are 5-lobers. There is one 6-lober that falls into this category.

OK, so here is something we can get our hands on. It’s clear, by a 10% greater margin, that setting a pumpkin AFTER the optimal date has a greater chance of being successful then setting one BEFORE the optimal date. Something unexpected to me. (One could theorize that this is due to a more optimal vine distance being coupled with the later date.)

So, now with the data in hand, lets try to answer the original question. Which of the two factors is the most important. Remember, the factor with greatest percent of sub-optimal success indicates that the OTHER factors are more important as they have a lower success rate when outside the optimal range.

Here is how they breakdown:

The Greatest sub-optimal success rate was for setting on a date AFTER the already calculated optimal date range of June 29th to July 3rd.

The next greatest sub-optimal success rate was for setting on a date BEFORE the already calculated optimal date range of June 29th to July 3rd.

The next greatest sub-optimal success rate was, for all practical purposes, a tie for pollinating BEFORE the 12 to 17 previous calculated target distance and pollinating AFTER the 12 to 17 previous calculated target distance.

6/10/2009 11:31:52 PM

Denver, CO

Conclusion:
THERFORE, I THINK IT CAN BE CONCLUDED THAT DISTANCE IS A MORE IMPORTANT FACTOR THEN DATE. WHEN FACED WITH A CHOICE, WAIT FOR DISTANCE OVER STICKING TO A DATE. POLLINATION AT LESS OR MORE THEN OPTIMAL DISTANCES YIELDS MUCH LOWER SUCCESS ODDS THEN DOES POLLINATION ON A DATE AFTER THE OPTIMAL DATE RANGE.

Further Verification of our Conclusion
I didn’t have a complete set of data to look at. However, I looked over all pumpkins grown 1200 pounds or greater in 2008 only. I then separated out the ones that were set in sub-optimal conditions. This would be being set at a distance not within the 12 to 17 foot range or being set at on a date other than June 29th to July 3rd, or both. (Ideally, this would be done for all 232 pumpkins, but I did not collect the information in a manner that lets me do that, except for 2008 pumpkins.)

What I found that out of 55 such pumpkins, 23 were set AFTER the optimal date range but WITHIN the optimal distance range. This is exactly what we would expect it to be given the above conclusions.

For the record here is the break down of 7 possible combinations:
Date Before optimal and distance greater then optimal = 0

Date before optimal and distance less then optimal = 1

Date after optimal and distance greater then optimal = 3

Date after optimal and distance less then optimal = 7

Date before optimal and distance correct = 6

Date after optimal and distance correct = 23 (verification that distance is most crucial versus date)

Date correct and distance less then optimal = 5

All other 1200 pound or greater pumpkins in 2008 were set at the right distances and on the right dates.

Hope this helps even more to get everyone in the 1200 pounder group!!

6/10/2009 11:34:06 PM

Willamette Valley, Oregon

Hey ghopson,

Thanks for all your hard work on this topic. I don't want to be a spoil sport. I think you are on the right track, and your analysis is certainly useful, but there's something missing from your analysis that is very important: We really need to know what proportion of the less than 1200 lb pumpkins fall into each of the date/distance categories you've laid out. Then we need to compare those proportions to the >1200 lb proportions in each category to see if they differ.

As it stands now, what you've shown us is not really conclusive, because I suspect that a lot of people try to pollinate in the recommended date/length window. Not surprisingly many of the 1200 lb + fall into that window, but possibly only because the vast majority of ALL pumpkins fall into that window, so the odds are stacked in favor of the big ones falling into that window too. (That may well be the best window, but so far we haven't really shown that in this analysis.)

As a test to what I'm saying, instead of looking at 1200+ lb, on another sleepless night, do the same analysis on, say, 400-600 lb pumpkins. This analysis would be exactly the same as the one you did on the 1200 + lb, just a different sub-population of pumpkins.

If you find a different pattern between the 400-600 lb group and the 1200+ lb group, than we might be able to say something about a particular pollination time/distance producing greater proportion of 1200+ lb pumpkins. I'd really be interested to see what you find!

6/11/2009 1:14:32 AM

Dummer Twp - Ontario

That is some very good and interesting data you have crunched here. Thanks for doing so and some crucial decisions have to be thought out now for those of us facing poor spring growing conditions.

Kirk

6/11/2009 5:30:47 AM

Cameron,ontario Team Lunatic

Thanks Greg. Could you send me a copy of this part to add to the 1st part? Thanks. Send to [email protected] Our shut-ins (growers without computers) will find this very interesting. Hopefully Jane's pumpkins will come in at the right time & distances this year. If I recall from last year, all her pumpkins were pollinated in the prime time & all were bigger than her previous PB. Thanks again. Take care & good luck.

Phil

6/11/2009 8:03:13 AM

Ohio

Nice work,,I really enjoyed reading this, very interesting read, and you made it very easy for this(me) dummy to understand,,lol thanks for taking the time to do this Ghopson.

6/11/2009 8:08:19 AM

bliss,n.y.- heart of Wyoming County

Very intersting study and theory. For us in the super cold -western new york area (this year anyways) we will, not by choice, be putting this theory to a test!
I hope it is very valid!

6/11/2009 8:43:01 AM

Little-TON - Colorado

Wonderful Job Greg,,,,,,,,I wonder what part weather patterns will have in this since I believe a major factor in the growth pattern is based around daylight and tempeture tendancies in sync matching the growth cycle of the fruit..

Pollinate too late...miss the bell curve of optimum growth cycle.....hard to tell what Mother nature is gowing to throw at us....right now Colorado is mimicking Oregon weather.....except for the twisters......Great Job again Mr Hopson....

6/11/2009 9:06:35 AM

Colorado

Greg- I was wondering, from your 2008 data, for the 6 pumpkins that were "Date before optimal and distance correct" I was wondering what the actual weights were, and was wondering if they were WELL over 1200 ??

seems like a few folks are aiming for a big plant (correct distance) and a little earlier pollination data this year. I was curious what last year's data in this group looked like.

6/11/2009 9:43:52 AM

Whidbey Island

I wonder about the effects of climate. In the Pacific NW we have cooler summers, but generally more warmth in the later summer and September than in the East or Midwest. That might change the numbers a bit with respect to date pollinated, that is we might do a bit better with a slightly later pollination date.

6/11/2009 10:04:07 AM

Pocatello ([email protected])

Thanks for giving me hope in this terribly cold and wet spring. This is the easiest year ever, nothing to do because the patch is always wet!

I'm going to wait for 12 feet or more, and start planning late season protection.

6/11/2009 1:45:09 PM

Boise City, Oklahoma, USA

Cliff, late season protection is not as hard as it sounds, just if you have slugs, you need to be ruthless or when you cover the fruits they will slip under there to chew on them!

Greg, thank you for One AND Two!

6/11/2009 7:00:39 PM

Denver, CO

Thanks again everyone. I'm glad it may help.

bathabitat -
I would love to be able to do a more exhaustive project, but there are many hundreds of pumpkins in say a 400 to 600 pound range. Just to many sleepless nights to get all that dates compiled. Keep in mind that I am making an “observational” statement and not “comparative”. Simply that 1200 lb or greater pumpkins seem to have the date and distance characteristics stated. I do not mean others ( Say 400 to 600 pounds) pumpkins don’t. But if you want a 1200 pounder, then try to get these characteristics. Hope that helps to clarify.
As to regional weather and temperature differences, I agree that they will have an affect in some manner. However, the data is self-regulating to a large extent. If a particular region was able to produce many 1200 pounders by pollination outside the stated targets, it would show up in the data itself and the results would move one direction or another to reflect it.
As a generally solid rule, I would approach my plants by thinking, distance of 12 to 17 feet first then date of June 29th to July 3rd. Take a look at your state record pumpkins over the last 10 years and see if it holds true? It most likely will. And if they don’t, it will most likely be the date that is earlier, but the distance will be within the range.

6/11/2009 11:28:42 PM