| |
General Discussion
|
Subject: A method for choosing pollinators
|
|
|
|
From
|
Location
|
Message
|
Date Posted
|
| ghopson |
Denver, CO
|
As I had too much extra time on my hands, I decided to try to do an in depth analysis of pollinators. I wanted to find and then create a list of first class pollinators. A list of pollinators that would give every grower a high chance of successfully growing a large pumpkin when matched with a world class female. And in doing so, I also discovered a group of pollinators that I have called the “Super 24” list.
A pollinator is the seed that grows the pumpkin plant whose male flowers are used to transfer its pollen to a female flower. Sometimes a pollinator is called the “cross” or “crossed with” and is also commonly referred to as the “male”. As an example, the 1068 Wallace is an 845 Bobier with the 898 Knauss as the pollinator (or cross or male).
My goal is to identify the very best pollinators available to us growers. To make the grade, a pollinator is my opinion has to have these two characteristics: 1.)The ability to produce a resulting female pumpkin that is very big (i.e. – 1200 pounds or more) 2.)And do this more often then other pumpkin seeds.
It would also be great if the pollinator could pass its genetic ability onto the offspring of the resulting female pumpkins seeds. When I use the term “resulting female pumpkin” I am talking about the pumpkin that grew having been pollinated by our pollinator, and not the size of any pumpkin on the pollinator plant itself, unless it was selfed.
So, the first step was to find all pumpkins grown to 1200 pounds or greater. A quick search of the AGGC database (Thank you Mike Nepereny!),shows that there are about 312 pumpkins grown to 1200 pounds or more. I am going to use only pumpkins for which the AGGC has data for to create this list.
The next step is to work through these 312 pumpkins and find what each of their pollinators are. While doing this, we are looking for pollinators that appear the most often.
|
2/28/2009 1:28:44 AM
|
| ghopson |
Denver, CO
|
After completing this task, we find out that many pollinators had a resulting female that was at least 1200 pounds or more, only one time. We can eliminate these one time 1200 pound or greater pollinators from our “Super 24” list. Just because a pollinator has resulting 1200 pound female pumpkin one time does not mean it can do it again. Maybe it can. But we want ones that we can be certain are capable of producing resulting females of 1200 pounds or more. Along these same lines, we will eliminate from the “Super 24” list any seed that has produced only 2 resulting females of 1200 pounds or greater. Even accomplishing this feat two times is not a strong enough level of proof to consider the seed for our “Super 24” list.
So, from the 312 known seeds, that when used as a pollinator have created a resulting female 1200 pounds or greater, we are now left with a list of seeds that: 1. Have been used as the pollinator; 2. of at least 3 or more female pumpkins 3. which each grew to 1200 pounds or more. It is from this list that we can began to gain some real insight into what our “Super 24” list may be.
Stop now and download the list from the Url below: http://www.filefactory.com/file/af263fg/n/Super_25_pollinator_list_rtf Paste the URL into your browser after opening a new window. The fileFactory screen will appear with the name of the file in a red box. Scroll down on the screen until you see the gray “Basic Service” and just below that is “blue text” that says “Download with filefactory basic”. Click on this and save the file to your computer’s desktop or documents folder and opening it using any text editor. (WordPerfect, Microsoft Word or even WordPad which comes automatically with all Windows Versions.) Just double click on the file and it should open for you. It’s an .rtf format file (Richtext format) and 198kb which is very small. Sorry,
|
2/28/2009 1:29:56 AM
|
| ghopson |
Denver, CO
|
The first thing to note about the list is that there are only 24 pumpkins on the list. This is itself a significant fact. The AGGC indicates that it has 8340 pumpkins in its database and we reduced that number down to just 24 pumpkins!
For most circumstances we could stop right here and call it good. Using any of the 24 seeds on this list as a pollinator would seem to give you a good chance at producing a large resulting female pumpkin of 1200 pounds or more. It would be hard for anyone to find fault in using any of these 24 seeds as a pollinator.
However, we can take these first class pollinators and examine them even farther. By doing so, we make a more complete analysis and might even discover that a few of these seeds on the “Super 24” list are better then the others.
To find out, we must first take our “Super 24” list of pollinators and note how many resulting female pumpkins were 1200 to 1299 pounds, 1300 to 1399 pounds, 1400 to 1499 pounds, 1500 to 1599 pounds and 1600 or more pounds. (See Columns 2 thru 6). This gives us the “spread” of the resulting female pumpkins. It might influence a grower if they were to see more 1500 and 1600 pound pumpkins for a particular seed versus more 1200 pounders for a different seed. From this, we will also get a total number of pumpkins grown by our pollinator seed that resulted in a female over 1200 pounds. (See Column 7).
The next step is to find out how many times our “Super 24” pollinator seeds have been used as a pollinator overall. Here we are talking about how often they were used as a pollinator regardless of the resulting weight of the female pumpkin they pollinated. (See Column 8)
|
2/28/2009 1:30:52 AM
|
| ghopson |
Denver, CO
|
We can then take these two numbers and divide : the total number of pumpkins grown by our pollinator seed that resulted in a female over 1200 pounds, by the total number of times the pollinator were used as a pollinator regardless of the resulting weight of the female pumpkin they pollinated. (This is Column 7 divded by Column 8.) I know, about as clear as mud! But actually quite easy to see in the chart provided.
The result is a list that indicates not only the spread of the resulting pollinated females, but also the “effectiveness” of the pollinators expressed as a percentage. (See Column 9). Fantastic your are thinking. (At least I hope you are . . . LOL.) You are thinking that you can just look down the list for the highest percent of effectiveness and know which seed is the best pollinator amongst all the “Super 24”. If only pumpkin growing was that easy. It’s not. It would be completely incorrect to look at just the percentage listed here without doing some critical pumpkin thinking along with it. Understanding how to correctly read what the “Super 24” list indicates is essential to making a well thought out informed decision about which pollinator to use.
|
2/28/2009 1:31:46 AM
|
| ghopson |
Denver, CO
|
For starters we can tell with a good deal of confidence that both the 998.6 Pukos and the 1068 Wallace are near the top of all pollinators to choose from. I know, many of you are saying well no duh! He took 2 pages of crap to tell us this!!? But I thought it was important for us to verify the common knowledge anyway. Each seed has been thoroughly used as a pollinator, with 98 times for the 998.6 Pukos and 101 times for the 1068 Wallace giving us a very solid indication of what we could expect from each if we use one as a pollinator. The 998.6 Pukos has a 19% success rate, meaning that just short of 1 in 5 which are used as a pollinator have a resulting female pumpkin of at least 1200 pounds. The 1068 is very close by with a 16% success rate. These percentages are unlikely to change over time, not so much because of the seeds themselves, but because statistically speaking they have been thoroughly tested.
However, having said the above, once the number of attempts drops below a certain, currently indefinable number, there is a greater and greater chance that the percentage of success listed is flat out wrong. Over time the true percentage of success could ultimately be higher or lower. Hopefully, I or someone will be able to define what the minimum number of attempts needs to be to get statistically reliable percentage of success. (BTW: if someone is interested in what calculations I made in an attempt to define this number email me and I will tell you. It’s very nerdy stuff!)
Thus, it takes a bit of intuition when looking at the rest of these percentages. I will use the 1631.5 McKie as a prime example. It has been used only 7 times as a pollinator. In those 7 times it produced (2), 1200 to 1299 pound pumpkins and (1) 1300 to 1399 pound pumpkin. That’s a 42% success rate! The highest on the list.
|
2/28/2009 1:32:43 AM
|
| ghopson |
Denver, CO
|
Ok, so one side of the argument goes something like: “For crying out loud, its only been used as a pollinator 7 times! Once that number gets to 50 or 100 or more it’s success rate will surely drop way down.”
The other side of the argument goes something like this: “Holly Cow! Only 7 people have tried it as a pollinator and 3 of them got great results! Imagine how many huge pollinated pumpkins it would have to its name if it has been used as a pollinator 100 times instead of 7.” So which is a correct stance? I can not honestly say one way or the other.
What I can tell you is that I could not find one of the pollinators on this “Super 24” list that started out strong and then fizzled out in the following years. In most every case, the pollinators started slowly with one or two 1200 pound or greater resulting females to their name and then continued along the same path in the following years. Additionally, we can not lose sight of the fact that regardless of the percentage of success, the seeds made this list because they had at least 3 female pumpkins that were more than 1200 pounds as a result of being pollinated by the seed. Something thousands and thousands of other pumpkins have never done even one time yet alone a minimum of 3 times.
As you go through examining each of the remaining seeds, pick out what you feel is right. I have also included a chart listing the bio-graphical information of these 24 pumpkins. I tried to find some sort of common tie amongst these 24 seeds but could not. Dates, heavy and light to charts, distances on the vine etc are all scattered all over the place. So you are left with gut feelings. I know, that’s about like trying to determine the humidity by the amount of curl in a pigs tail, but it’s what we got.
|
2/28/2009 1:33:42 AM
|
| ghopson |
Denver, CO
|
In regards to the 1631.5 McKie and similarly situated seeds, I personally think that if a pollinator can produce 3, 1200 pound or greater pumpkins, putting it on this very exclusive “Super 24” list, and do so in just 7 pollination attempts, that’s a seed I must have in my arsenal regardless of what the true percentage ends up being!
At this point in this article I want to switch gears slightly and point out another aspect to choosing a pollinator. Hereto, we have been concentrating on the pollinators ability to create resulting females of at least 1200 pounds or more. But what if it’s immortality that you are after? In other words, is there a way to find seeds that meet all the above criteria AND pass that ability onto the seeds of the resulting female? I call these seed types trains or stackings.
An example of this would be the 898 Knauss, a seed on our “Super 24” list. It was used as a pollinator to produce the 1068 Wallace. When the 1068 Wallace has been used as a pollinator, it has thus far produced the 1446.5 Werner, the 1207 Young, the 1041.5 McKie, the 904 Stelts and the 639 Pugh. Everyone of these 1068 Wallace offsprings have themselves at least one pollination that resulted in a 1200 pound or greater female. Those of you that are particularly astute, will note that the 1446.5, 1041.5 and 1207 are not only offspring of the 1068 Wallace but offspring that have now made it onto the extremely exclusive “Super 24” list. That’s one awesome train of seeds!
Another is the 998.6 Pukos which pollinated the 1470 Wallace and the 1385 Jurtas. Each of these seeds themselves have a least 1 pollination with a resulting female that is 1200 pounds or greater. The 1385 Wallace has 4 its first year out. What a train!
|
2/28/2009 1:34:50 AM
|
| ghopson |
Denver, CO
|
But we can take this even one level deeper. Let’s go back to the 1068 Wallace. Look at what seed the 1068 Pollinated when it produced the 1446.5 Werner. A 998.6 Pukos. Another “Super 24” Pollinator seed. Look at what seed the 1068 Wallace pollinated when it produced the 1207 Young. The 1370 Rose. Again another “Super 24” Pollinator seed. The 1041.5 McKie was the result of the 1068 Wallace pollinating the 842 Eaton, which is once again a in our “Super 24” pollinators list. The 1308.5 Mckie is the result of the 1139 Sherwood being pollinated by the 1370 Rose. There are many more then these as well.
In fact time after time, many of the great seeds out there, the ones that are not necessarily huge themselves but end up producing huge pumpkins, are the products of crossing two of these top 24 pollinators. Thus, in my opinion, if you want to have the greatest chance or making your own “train” seed, it seems that crossing two seeds from this “Super 24” pollinators list is a great way to go about it. And remember, we reached this finding not by looking at how the seeds offspring have done but by ranking them in terms of how their pollinations have done. No doubt, a top 24 seed list via offspring success would have lots of overlap with our list, but our list is nonetheless substantially different.
The “Super 24” list is also a useful tool for evaluating talent which has not been put on the list. We can use the same calculations that gave us the “percentage of success” to look at other seeds and rate their potential as well. But we have to do it with the understanding that they have not yet had 3 or more pollinations with resulting females which grew to 1200 pounds or greater. We would be looking for seeds with the highest possible success rates, ignoring those that don’t have a least a 50% success rate. (Remember, here for scouting purposes we are definin
|
2/28/2009 1:35:45 AM
|
| ghopson |
Denver, CO
|
defining our success as 1 or 2 pollinations with a resulting female over 1200 pounds or more)
I believe that when trying to make an assessment of a seed not on our list, there are a few things to look for. Look at the total number of times it has been used as a pollinator. If it’s more then 20 and the success percentage is not greater than 10% or even 15%, I would move on. Conversely, if it has only been used a few times with 1 or 2 resulting females of 1200 pounds or more, ask yourself if you think it just needs more pollinations before it will break out into stardom. Particularly if its only had one year to be used.
Thus, we could look at a seed like the 1119 McMullen. We would note that it has been used as a pollinator just 4 times, but that in those 4 attempts it has 2 pumpkins over 1200 pounds. A very high 50% success rate. That’s just one pollination shy of making our list. And heck, it also has a 1200 pounder that was from an open pollination. So, we could conclude that this seed has some solid up and coming potential as a pollinator.
Another example would be the 778 Ligget. Here is a seed that has been used as a pollinator just two measly times. Yet in those two pollinations the resulting females were the 1218.5 Ligget and the 1524.5 Ligget. Thus it has a 100% success rate! This makes the 778 Ligget almost impossible to ignore as a pollinator. BUT, until it pollinates one more female that grows to 1200 pounds or greater it cannot make our “Super 24” list. No matter, this will almost certainly end up on the list someday. We could also go through all the 2008 seeds (or what ever new set there is), and identify possible undiscovered “train” seeds. We would need to look for crosses that contain a pollinator on our “Super 24” list which pollinated a seed that is also on our “Super 24” list. The 1472.5 Werner is just one example. It was pollinated by the 998.6 Pukos and the po
|
2/28/2009 1:38:32 AM
|
| ghopson |
Denver, CO
|
It was pollinated by the 998.6 Pukos and the pollinated seed was the 985 Werner. The 985 Werner was the result of the 898 Knauss pollinating the 1370 Rose, and so on.
Finally, before I conclude, you will note, I did not state here which seeds I thought were the best of the “Super 24” pollinators. I would love to hear some debate and talk about which ones are the best. Is it the pollinator with the highest percentage of success? The one with the most 1600 pounders? The one with the most attempts or fewest attempts? Form your own opinions and let me know what you think. I have complied what I think they are and I will email that list to you if you would like it. See my email address below.
In conclusion let’s review a few key points. We started with over 8000 known seeds. From this we found the “Super 24” list. A list composed of the only 24 pumpkins known to the AGGC database that have pollinated at least 3 females or more which then grew equal to or in excess of 1200 pounds. Pollinating your female pumpkin with any of these pollinators seems to really increase your chances of a resulting female pumpkin in excess of 1200 pounds. Additionally, when looking to pass this ability down to the offspring’s seeds, it appears that success as a pollinator as indicated within this list, is a very important component. Crossing two know successful pollinators is probably an excellent way to do this.
|
2/28/2009 1:39:55 AM
|
| ghopson |
Denver, CO
|
I think that as more new seeds are crossed with the “Super 24” pollinators, bigger and greater pumpkins will come about. Just as important, as these “Super 24” pollinators are crossed with each other more often, the pumpkin community will see the next great seed emerge. It may have already happened with the 1385 Jurtas!
If someone wants to contact me, please do not hesitate to do so. Ask as many questions or hurl as many insults you want. I will respond to everyone I can.
You can reach me at the following email: [email protected].
Also, if you would like copy of this article with the tables included in the body of the posting let me know and I will email one to you. Please tell me what word processing format you prefer.
|
2/28/2009 1:40:51 AM
|
| ghopson |
Denver, CO
|
Whew! Need to go drink a few beers now . . . LOL!
|
2/28/2009 1:41:39 AM
|
| Brooks B |
Ohio
|
Ghopson,,,, you ummm,,, realted to Giant Jack?,,,lol!! Kidding you bud!,,lololol
|
2/28/2009 4:02:12 AM
|
| SCTROOPER |
Upstate S.C.
|
Ghopson, I have been on third lately and can't sleep when I'm off. I has made for some good and interesting reading thanks for the fix pal. Keep it up. Troop
|
2/28/2009 5:12:53 AM
|
| Milford |
milford, CT,
|
Ghopson..pumpkin gentics is not an exact science...it's kinda grey....we can breed traits into the new cross, but the traits are not always exactly exhibitted by the offspring...soooo..my philosophy is to determine what the trait is that I want to add to a particular seed (weight, size, shape, color, % heavy...)then I look for a "Hot" pollinator for that trait. What is a hot pollinator? I look at that as a seed that exhibits that trait outside the normal curve of AG's.
Example...898 Knauss..% heavy..670 Daigle...color...1068 Wallace..size and % heavy..etc.
Again I say that the genetics that you are trying to corss in may not be 100 % effective but they should add some of that trait to the mother. There are no guarantees.
Mark
|
2/28/2009 10:13:32 AM
|
| Engel's Great Pumpkins and Carvings |
Menomonie, WI ([email protected])
|
Are you basing your data of pollinator or offspring. As I can cross my 1068 with a Hubbard and still end up with a world record. Now the offspring is a different story.
|
2/28/2009 11:04:17 AM
|
| Milford |
milford, CT,
|
I base my decisions on the data of the offspring of that pollinator when it was used as a Male. Example. 1068 Wallace...the 845 had grown some nice sized pumpkins but by adding % heavy...the 1068 grows big pumpkins that now go much heavier to the chart. Mark
|
2/28/2009 1:38:41 PM
|
| The BiZ |
Littleton, Colo
|
...Gman......get outside ...enjoy the sun.....build your hoop houzez.......
|
2/28/2009 8:56:19 PM
|
| Bodene |
Clayton, Ohio, USA
|
Until you can do a large number of random samplings in controlled settings you're just pissing away a perfectly good Saturday night :) Previously having worked in the livestock genetics industry, I can tell you ## of pumpkins over 1000 or over 1200 has little importance in determining the genetic value of a seed. The %+ deviation in weight over patchmates is a more important predicter of genetic value.
|
2/28/2009 10:49:08 PM
|
| Whidbey |
Whidbey Island
|
I had always thought that the pollinator never made much difference to that pumpkin, just to the progeny pumpkins. Anyone else have an info on this?
|
3/1/2009 9:39:47 AM
|
| ghopson |
Denver, CO
|
Thanks for all the comments. Remember the point of the research was to see what seeds when used as a pollinator most often produce a resulting female of 1200 pounds or more.
Crossing desired traits into pumpkins is lots of fun and leads to even bigger and better pumpkins. But in the above research I was trying to identify pollinators that make huge pumpkins as a result. I also found that in doing so, and crossing two these pollinators, you can produce many high potential offspring.
Sure, you can take your 1068 Wallace and use a Hubbard as a pollinator. The 1068 is a great female. But what people realize less is the flip side. The point of my research. The 1068 when used to pollinate that Hubbard may produce a world record Hubbard as well!
And yes, we are limited in the number of samples we have to choose from. That’s the nature of the game right now. I am not trying to post a scientific proof of pollination. Just observations of the data we have.
If someone can compose a list of pumpkins when used as a pollinator whose % heavy or light was a deciding factor in the offspring please do so. I don’t know how to tell if this was true or not. From what I could tell, it makes no difference at all. Remember, of all the stats we have, the % heavy or light is one of the most likely to be incorrect. There are a thousand variables that affect this number. Look at the second chart I included, the heavy or light is all over the place.
Lastly, does the pollinator make a difference to the pumpkin that’s been pollinated? I cant say for certain. It matters with other plants, but I dont know about pumpkins. I can tell you that the above research is what I found out. From there, you have to decide for yourself why these 24 pollinators would be in a group that 8000+ others can't make it too. I don’t know, I just found it incredibly interesting!
|
3/1/2009 12:27:43 PM
|
| Doug14 |
Minnesota([email protected])
|
Ghopson, I appreciate all the work you put into this. One point that I think needs to be clear, is that the pollinator doesn't affect the ultimate weight of the pumpkin pollinated, only the seeds are affected(one could argue that a pollinator produces larger or more seeds...therefore a maybe a very negligible difference in weight). If you want to determine how good a pollinator is, you'd need to look at how the seeds do out of the pumpkin pollinated. Example....723 X 846 results in 1000 Wallace 09(made up) The seeds of the 1000 Wallace 09 are the ones that would show how good a pollinator the 846 was.
|
3/1/2009 12:38:27 PM
|
| Engel's Great Pumpkins and Carvings |
Menomonie, WI ([email protected])
|
Your data is incorrect as we have been trying to tell you. The Pollinator only affects the offspring..
|
3/1/2009 2:35:39 PM
|
| ghopson |
Denver, CO
|
OK, I am not being clear and I apologize. I think I should of added a these paragrpahs in the body of the posting.
I am NOT saying that the pollinator is affecting the female itself. I understand fully that just because I have sex with my wife it dose not change her genetics, only my children. The same is true with Pumpkins.
What I am saying here is that these pollinators are the only ones whose resulting females were 1200 pounds or greater 3 times or more. I CAN NOT tell you why this is. I don’t know. But its a fact. Maybe a very useful fact if we try to use it to our advantage. Maybe not, I cant tell you that either.
Just recently, researchers at the Mayo clinic studied 30,00 Left handed and Right handed people. The left handed group was 4 times more likely to get cancer then the left handed group. Why? They have no idea. Not a one. But, its a fact, and as such, the suggest that left handed people need to be particularly aware of cancer risks and partake in increased cancer screenings versus right handed people.
I would put the information I have complied above in the same situation as the Mayo Clinic research above. There are lots of findings that don’t make sense to us, but nonetheless, we can shape decisions based on that information anyhow.
I understand this is diffrent from what we normally think as pumpkin growers. It may turn out to be a farse. But until last year Pluto was a planet. Weird things happen.
|
3/1/2009 3:33:48 PM
|
| Doug14 |
Minnesota([email protected])
|
I'm not sure I'm understanding you correctly. For instance, the 1566 Rodonis(1450 X 1231)....are you saying because the female produced a 1566 lber., that it reflects favorably on the 1231 because it was the pollinator? I'd say it reflects favorably on the 1068 as a pollinator, because the 1450 is 1068 X 1068.
|
3/2/2009 1:31:47 AM
|
| ghopson |
Denver, CO
|
Doug, There is no doubt that the 1566 Rodonis relfects favorably on the 1068 as a pollinator because of what you have said above. This is our traditonal and probably best way of looking at pollinators.
But the 1566 it also appears, and I stress "appears", to reflect favaorbaly on the 1231 as well, because its one of 6 pumpkins that grew to 1200 pounds or more when the 1231 was a pollinator. True, even though the 1231 had nothing to do with the 1566 gorwing so large!
Very strange correlation, I will admit. But the correlations are there and seem to point to an alternate method of looking at polliantors.
|
3/2/2009 7:05:48 AM
|
| Engel's Great Pumpkins and Carvings |
Menomonie, WI ([email protected])
|
You are still looking to deep into this...The correlation is the experience of the growers, and the use of a proven seed, and wanting to make that cross.
|
3/2/2009 7:45:12 AM
|
| Total Posts: 27 |
Current Server Time: 1/29/2026 12:41:13 PM |
|