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Denver, CO

Each year there is a lot of discussion regarding two key issues that we all face as giant pumpkin growers:

    1st – How big should my pumpkin plant be?

    2nd – Should I set a 4 lobe or 5 lobe pumpkin

With the vast wealth of information that the AGGC site provides I set out to gather data and conduct a statistical analysis of these two questions and maybe provide us pumpkin growers some much needed answers.

As a starting point, I made the assumption that as giant pumpkin growers, our goal is to produce the biggest pumpkin possible and become a member of the “Heavy Hitters” club. An ad-hoc search of posts on Bigpumpkins.com shows an general agreement that the current standard to be considered a heavy hitter is 1200 pounds. And it is from this base number of 1200 pounds or greater that I focused my research around.

Question 1: HOW BIG SHOULD MY PUMPKIN PLANT BE?

To answer this question I searched the AGGC database and complied a list of all pumpkins grown 1200 pounds or greater and for which there was also data on the square footage of the plant that the pumpkin was grown on.

169 such pumpkins were found meeting this criterion. Adding all their square footage together and dividing by 169 gives us an average square footage of 690 sq/ft per plant.

Thus we can say with certainty, that for all pumpkins ever grown over 1200 pounds, the average size of the pumpkin plant they were grown on, was 690 square feet. As a general growing practice, this would be a good number to strive for when growing our pumpkin plant. BUT, as they say, there is more to the story then that. And we find that by answering question number 2.

Question 2: WHICH IS BETTER, A 4 LOBE OR 5 LOBE PUMPKIN?
There is never any lack of debate when it comes to this question, which is also extended to 3 lobe and 6 lobe pumpkins. However, data for 6 lobes and 3 lobes is skimpy and therefore not considered in this analysis.

(Continued . . . )

2/23/2008 9:15:26 PM

Denver, CO

As a starting point, we need to determine the average weight of all pumpkins grown 1200 pounds or greater and who had 4 lobes. Then we need to turn around and do the very same thing for 5 lobe pumpkins.

There are 52, 4-lobed pumpkins which account for 31% of all pumpkins grown 1200 pounds or greater. These 52, 4-lobed pumpkins have and average weight of 1446 lbs.

There are 103, 5-lobed pumpkins which account for 60% of all pumpkins grown 1200 lbs or greater. These 103, 5-lobed pumpkins have and average weight of 1425 pounds.

The remaining 9% of pumpkins had no data listed for them or were six lobed pumpkins.

So, intuitively we can look at these results and determine that 4 lobe pumpkins as a general rule appear to have an average weight that is 21 pounds ( 2%) higher then a 5 lobe pumpkin. That difference is not great, but it could be enough to win you the weigh off. However, this is a good example of how sometimes statistics can mislead our conclusions. There is a hidden factor at play here.

When we look at a third calculation, that takes into account the average square footage of a 4-lobed pumpkin plant and the average square footage of a 5-lobed pumpkin plant, we find something revealing:
        
Of the 52 4-lobed pumpkins plants grown 1200 pounds or greater, the average square feet of plant that they were grown on is 725 sq/ft.

Of the 103 5-lobed pumpkins plants grown 1220 pounds or greater, the average square feet of plant that they were grown on is 648 sq/ft.

This a difference between a 4-lobed plant and a 5-lobed plant of 11%. Thus, we can say that a 4-lobed pumpkin needs to be grown on a plant that is 11% larger in square footage to reach the same weight of a corresponding 5-lobed plant.

(Continued . . .)

2/23/2008 9:15:51 PM

Denver, CO

A fourth calculation also sheds some light. If we take the average square feet of a 5-lobed plant (648) and a 4-lobed plant (725) respectively, and dived each by their respective average weights of 1446 and 1425 pounds it give us a yield rate.

4-lobed pumpkins on average yield 1.99 pounds of pumpkin for every square foot of plant space.

5-lobed pumpkins on average yield 2.20 pounds of pumpkins for every square foot of plant space.

This means that 5-lobed pumpkins are more “efficient”, in that they yield on average 10% more pounds per square feet of plant then a equally situated 4-lobed plant.



CONCLUSIONS:

From this research we can make the following generalizations. To grow a “heavy hitter” pumpkin of 1200 pounds or greater we should keep these principles in mind:
    
First, The size of the pumpkin plant that is needed will depend on whether you set a 4-lobed pumpkin or a 5-lobed pumpkin, with a smaller plant being needed for a 5-lobed pumpkin (648 sq/ft) and a larger plant being needed for a 4-lobed pumpkin (725 sq/ft).

Second, a 5-lobed pumpkin is more “efficient” then their 4-lobed counterparts in that 5-lobed pumpkins yield 10% more pounds per square feet, or 2.20 lbs/ per sq/ft, versus 4-lobed pumpkins who yield on average 1.99 lbs/ per sq/ft.

Be very careful in how you read this. It DOES NOT mean that 5-lobed pumpkins are better at producing bigger pumpkins. In fact 5 of 9 pumpkins over 1500 pounds are 4-lobed pumpkins. But it DOES mean that you need a bigger plant size to grow the 4-lobed pumpkin to “heavy hitter” status versus the 5-lobed pumpkin. In fact 11% square feet more plant size.

I will leave the practical application of this research up to others way smarter then me. But as a starter I would say that if lack of space is a consideration, get as close to 650 square feet of plant as you can and grow a 5-lobed pumpkin if at all possible.

(Continued . . .)

2/23/2008 9:16:15 PM

Denver, CO

Also, keep in mind that a smaller plant is easier to maintain, less susceptible to weather factors, less susceptible to disease and cheaper to grow.

If you have any doubts about this consider the case of Bob Liggett. He has done something which I think may be a testament to the greatest growing feats this sport has ever seen. Out of 169 pumpkins, 1200 pounds or greater, only 16 have been grown in square footage of 480 square feet or less. Bob Liggett has 4 of these pumpkins. That’s an amazing 25%. His 1353.5 pumpkin had a yield of 4.51 pounds per square foot of plant, and absolutely incredible feat! He also has a 5th pumpkin that is at 1172, just barely off the heavy hitter mark. In a quick exchange of ideas with Bob Liggett, I discovered that he has been forced to use such small plants due to environmental disease and insect factors that ravage any attempts at a bigger plant. This is exactly where this research shows a 5-lobed plant would be of advantage over a 4-lobed plant. And in fact, 4 of the 5 pumpkins grown by Bob Ligget where 5-lobed pumpkins.

I hope this will help other growers. It was just a fun research project for myself to kill some time until spring gets here. If anyone has any further questions, please feel free to email me at [email protected] and I will do my best to answer them. Our post a comment here and I will respond as well. Keep in mind, I am just a hack. I have no formal training in math and statistics. I am always mindful of my favorite quote regarding statistics. It was accredited to Buddy Ryan , head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles when a reporter presented him with a bunch of statistics about why the Eagles could not win he replied “Statistics remind me of the guy who drowned in a river with and average depth of just two and a half feet.” Numbers don’t always tell the whole story.

2/23/2008 9:16:41 PM

Fairport,NY

Very interesting data you have displayed!!!Keep up the great work!!!
and thanks for sharing it!!!

2/23/2008 11:14:05 PM

Nicholls Georgia

yep that was very interesting to read

2/23/2008 11:24:14 PM

Minnesota

Great Post

2/24/2008 12:12:01 AM

Cameron,ontario Team Lunatic

Great Work George. Thanks for the info.

Phil

2/24/2008 10:16:46 AM

Brooklyn Corner, Nova Scotia

I enjoyed reading that, thanks.

2/24/2008 10:52:51 AM

Farmville, Virginia ([email protected])

Very informative! Thanks.

2/24/2008 11:55:58 AM

Ellenville NY

A great way to look at a huge mass of information.

Thanks!

Liane

2/24/2008 3:15:28 PM

Rhode Island

george
one of the more important thought out researched articles i have ever read on this subject of size of plant and number of segments
we have long held from experience that to properly feed a large pupkin you need a healthy plant and root system that will cover 725 to 750 sq ft
ditto on the four vs five segment. we have had monsters on both. the plant and it system of roots and soil balance value is the key
pap

2/24/2008 8:26:20 PM

Denver, CO

Thanks everyone for the great comments. I have intentionally left out other information that I complied while doing this research because there is simply not enough data yet to give reliable numbers. But soon, I hope to know just how much deviation from the averages thier can be before you lose wieght and become "salad "instead of plant.

By the way, my name is Greg and not George but no biggy.

2/24/2008 9:50:33 PM

Minnesota([email protected])

Greg,
Thanks for sharing this interesting info. You made it very easy to understand. It's info. like this that can be very helpful to us "wannabe" heavy hitters.

2/24/2008 10:18:57 PM

Rhode Island

we like you better as george. a more presidential ring to it
thanks again
pap

2/24/2008 10:51:18 PM

Circleville ,OH.

Greg,

Very informative and a good subject. I can attest to the fact that Bob does very well with his small plant size. I just never imagined he had 25%, that's just incredible and goes to show we are lucky to have one of the top growers in our area.

Once again good job on the in-depth search!

Darryl

2/24/2008 11:57:13 PM

Cameron,ontario Team Lunatic

Sorry Greg

Phil

2/25/2008 7:59:08 AM

Colorado

hi greg,interesting analysis.Keep in mind that the reason most of the big pumpkins are from five lobers(imho)is that the growers have been selecting their main fruit to have as many lobes as possible.Over the years this has meant most of the fruit have five lobes with 4 and threes becoming less common.It seemws like 6 lobes arent any more prevalent than when I started 11 years ago.I suspect I'm wrong about that last statement and that pumpkin growers in 2099 will be talking about 6 and seven lobe statistics then

2/25/2008 10:39:51 AM

Pembroke, New Hampshire

Interesting stuff..it gets my mind a ticking.
A couple of comments. This data is all based on reported growing area and I wonder how accurate it is. Sometimes a 700 square foot area is used but the plant only covers 600 sq. ft., etc..
I also wonder if a 5 or 6 lober becomes a bigger sink limiting the growth of the plant distal to the pumpkin so it actually becomes harder to grow a bigger plant on a pumpkin with more lobes (which is cause and which is effect?).
I'd love to see data on similar lobed pumpkins with different plant areas (i.e.- 5 lober grown on 500 sq.ft. vs 600 sq.ft. vs 700 sq.ft.) and divide it into how much plant is before and how much is after the fruit.
Great stuff.

2/25/2008 11:19:03 AM

maine USA

What a lot of work! Thank you for all of the great information. KathyT

2/25/2008 12:17:59 PM

Marion,IN

Greg, great information! I really enjoy reading this type of helpful info...now if I can just apply it!!

Mark G.

2/25/2008 12:53:17 PM

Denver, CO

Thanks again for the comments everyone. I am glad it is stirring up some ideas and thinking.

Cojoe: I am hoping that I got across in the article that in fact 4 lobe pumpkins are just as capable as 5 lobe pumpkins at producing a giant. BUT, it appears that if you set a 4 lobe pumpkins, you need more space to accomplish the same result. As to prevalence of greater number of lobes, only time will tell imho

cndadoc of New Hampshire: I understand the data is grower reports and not first hand observations, but its what we got right now. Over the long haul differences probably even themselves out. Also, I wanted to know the exact same thing in terms of similar lobed pumpkins with different plant areas. I set out dividing each into 50sq ft divisions from the average sq/ft. I got numbers and truthfully they are baffling in nature. But at this time, there are not enough pumpkins to fit into each division to ensure the numbers a accurate and meaningful. A single pumpkin can sway the data tremendously and incorrectly. If I had the time and resources I could expand my research to include all pumpkins 1000 pounds and up and get numbers. But this would take many weeks and I am not that crazy right now. Maybe next year!

2/25/2008 6:33:12 PM

Greg,
Do you happen to still have the data on which were the other 12 pumpkins that hit 1,200 pounds in 480 sq ft or less?
I think that would be interesting to see.

2/25/2008 6:38:14 PM

Denver, CO

Here you go pumpkinstoo:

1524 Ligget         430 sq/ft     5 lobes
1524 Starr         400 sq/ft     5 lobes
1462 Gibson         450 sq/ft     6 lobes
1405.5 Bobier        448 sq.ft     5 lobes
1368 Ligget        475 sq/ft    5 lobes
1353.5 Ligget        300 sq/ft    5 lobes(incredible)
1333 Connolly        400 sq/ft    4 lobes
1263.8 Pitura        440 sq/ft    5 lobes
1262 Gibson        475 sq/ft    5 lobes
1249 Armstrong     425 sq/ft    5 lobes
1245 Bailey        400 sq/ft    5 lobes
1229 Platte        450 sq/ft    5 lobes
1218.5 Ligget        480 sq/ft    4 lobes
1217.7 Bailey        450 sq/ft    5 lobes
1214.5 Conolly     400 sq/ft    5 lobes
1205 Larue        400 sq/ft     5 lobes
1202.9 Pitura        440 sq/ft    4 lobes

3 with 4 lobes
13 with 5 lobes
1 with 6 lobes

2/25/2008 8:06:32 PM

thanks much. I'm interested to see if there are any really common ancestors that stand out in these and checking the backgrounds of the seeds I'll be growing for any I'm able to identify since I'll be working with similar size areas.
Jim

2/26/2008 12:01:47 AM

Jamestown, NY

Another addition to the list:

1232.5 Bailey '07 was grown on 450 sq/ft and had 4 lobes.

2/26/2008 9:40:27 PM

Warwood

"George",
This was a very interesting study and I enjoyed reading it. These are just the type of studies that can help veteran and new growers alike. It would be interesting to see more informative studies as the above re. different categories of AG growing. Thanks to your input into the banks of AG growing knowledge. I will bookmark and save this for future reference and possibilites. Don

2/27/2008 1:34:47 PM

Owensboro, Ky.

Greg, great research and thanks for sharing. I am curious as to how many others would have made it into your study, if the sq/ft and/or # of lobes, had been listed. I guess I am asking, is...overall how complete is the info that folks enter into the AGGC database. Wish I would have joined when possible, but such is life. Thanks Again!!! Peace, Wayne

2/27/2008 3:56:20 PM